Thread: Purani Fauj, Naya Pakistan - A Psychoanalysis




1/ Thread: Purani Fauj, Naya Pakistan - A Psychoanalysis.
2/ Loss aversion is a concept in prospect theory and captured beautifully by Daniel Kahneman & Tversky as “losses loom larger than gains”.
3/ Basically, the pain of losing is psychologically about twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining. Thus making people irrational and willing to take risks (or behave dishonestly) to avoid a loss than to make a gain.
4/ This is also the reason for preventing course correction. People have general preference towards the current state of affairs over changing to a better alternative. And end up doubling down on loss making ventures in the hope of recovery.
5/ Pakistan Army, similarly and notoriously irrational, is doing exactly the same. It made huge bet on Imran Khan and hoped IK’s right mix of ethnicity, corruption slogan and loud propaganda using pliant media would help move people towards him and over shadow opponents.
6/ While this might have worked, had IK not been so supremely incompetent and moron of epic proportions, lacking in both political and administrative skill. (FA pass fauji dolts made the selection so won't blame IK)
7/ Now with project IK running into loss. Fauj instead of course correcting is behaving irrationally by doubling down on the bet beginning with - tightening media, blacking out protests esp. by Pashtuns and jailing opposition leaders again in an attempt to see project IK succeed.
8/ To clarify, project IK is not about IK. It is about fauj's supra constitutional authority and maintaining it’s unchallenged hegemony. But by doubling down bet on project IK, the probability of success does not increase rather fauj has exposed itself all around and...
9/ ...hardened positions among opposition. The future looks dangerously dark given fauj’s irrational bet, with equal possibility of army takeover or repeat of Bangladesh, at the right tipping point (which isn’t far). One thing is for sure, there is no course correction from here.

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