Two Assassinations And A Changed Course For The Region



Two Assassinations And A Changed Course For The Region

Kargil war saw two nuclear neighbours - Pakistan and India, fight out in the mountains of Ladhak, as result of Pakistan army led by myopic commando General Musharraf (who later went on to coup and appoint himself President) deceitfully sneak and occupy key peaks overlooking Srinagar, while Prime Ministers of Pakistan and India had just opened a new chapter of dialogue and reconciliation. 

By the end of Kargil war, Pakistan army was shoved out of occupied peaks by Indian forces, the bigger loss, however, was of Pakistan’s image as untrustworthy nation. On the Indian side, it led to initiation of a post-mortem of Kargil - recorded as an embarrassing intelligence failure. Committee led by strategic affairs analyst K Subrahmanyam was formed to carry out post-mortem and as a consequence the committee recommended establishing assets of Aviation Research Centre, a department of the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) in Tajikistan. 

Following which, the current National Security Adviser Ajit Doval established a minuscule Indian military presence in Tajikistan. 

Tajikistan was interesting to Indians because it shares boundaries with both China and Pakistan, and neighbours Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corridor, which in turn shares boundary with Pakistan Held Kashmir and China. 

In 2001, Taliban backed by Pakistan army’s intelligence agency - the ISI, carried out assassination of Afghan Tajik leader Ahmed Shah Massoud, also known as the lion of Panjshir, of the Northern Alliance — which was fighting against the Taliban. At the time, Indian doctors, operating out of a hospital at Farkhor in southern Tajikistan near the border with northern Afghanistan, attempted to revive Massoud unsuccessfully.

Fast forward to 2018, another bulwark against Taliban in Kandahar - Gen. Abdul Raziq was assassinated clinically by same players, Pakistan’s ISI and Taliban. While General Raziq had survived multiple assassination attempts in the past, this one saw Taliban successfully infiltrating deep into General Raziq’s trusted guards, such that the assassin fired four fatal shots merely five feet away from him.

Much similarities exist in the manner, method and players involved in assassination of Ahmad Shah Massoud and General Raziq, however this time, the follow up are going to be markedly different. Unlike 2001, Afghanistan now has a government, an army, a committed intelligence network but more importantly a national will to fight. Similarly, India has since upgraded and sharpened it’s reach in the region, cultivating a network of humint and assets, that go beyond providing medical or engineering support.  

The assassination of General Raziq is a watershed moment in war against terror in South Asia. Which, in my analysis, led to tit-for-tat hit on Maulana Sami ul Haq - an old friend, ideologue of Taliban and instrumental in running 100s of jihad factories across Pakistan. Operationally there would be little impact as a result of Sami ul Haq’s absence but psychologically the war on terror has become much more intimate and personal for players that otherwise were happy orchestrating behind the scenes. The same day that saw Sami ul Haq brutally and purposefully stabbed to death, also witnessed a failed bid on Abdullah Gul the son of self-confessed jihadi Gen Hameed Gul. Abdullah Gul has been the chief organiser and fund raiser for Difa-e-Pakistan council whose vice President is none less than UN designated terrorist Hafiz Saeed. 

Targeting of both Sami ul Haq and Abdullah, who themselves have never picked weapon yet were part of key infrastructure support for terror organization from Taliban to Kashmir/India focused jihadi organizations, has for the first time in South Asia opened field for Israeli style ops that target not just leaders of Hamas but also its support network, never allowing it to gain enough operational strength to execute trans-national attacks.

Interestingly, this September 2018, another Pakistani conduit Khurshid Alam - a ring leader of Indian Mujahideen was assassinated 7KM from India in Nepal's Sunsari district. Khurshid Alam a cleric was accused of sheltering four suspects in Mumbai terror attack.

South Asia in its war on terror, choosing to go down this path, should come as no surprise to observers of the region; Professor Christine Fair back in February 2017 suggested India to move away from covert bombings, which included widening ethnic fault lines and fanning turmoil internally for Pakistan army and instead encouraged sub-conventional operations - Prof. Fair wrote“India should focus its efforts on degrading groups like the LeT, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) as well as their enablers in and out of uniform.” Further pointing out that,“India should consider seriously how it can degrade key leaders. LeT seems particularly ripe for such options given its hierarchical structure.”

Afghanistan and Indian use of covert means has only hardened Pakistan army’s control of society - needless to say from polity to judiciary to media, in the process dismissing every casualty as necessary collateral damage; time has probably arrived for muting lethality of terrorist organizations by elimination - but hopefully with complete appreciation, that this path shall consequentially lead to decentralisation of terror in Pakistan and wider acceptance of radical elements, as is the case with Hamas coming to power in Palestine parliament.

Shalom

Gernailsaab 

Author is part-time researcher and student of South Asian Peace and Security Studies, with deep commitment to bring about change in South Asia, especially Pakistan. Author has no political, government, NGO or media affiliations. And can be reached on Twitter @GernailSaheb

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