Pakistan’s – Achilles Heel
Pashtuns protesting profiling by Panjab/ Pakistan state |
The legend of Achilles has it that his mother Thetis
dipped him into the river Styx in order to make him invincible. The water,
however, didn’t cover his heel and an arrow wound to his heel later killed him.
Pakistan, in
comparison, has multitude vulnerabilities, primarily as a result of Pakistan fauj’s
“strategic culture stemming from
pathological geopolitics infused with a Salafi jihadist ideology, suffused by
paranoia and neurosis” as recently observed by Col. Robert Cassidy, Ph.D., U.S. Army. And while the vulnerabilities
extend to include socio-ethno-religious spheres of public life, and wreck havoc
to its national fabric – the Pakistan fauj with its control over governance,
foreign-security policy, infusion of political Islam and NGO/media bullying has
skillfully managed the national narrative to its favour.
Recently, Prime
Minster Modi, in his address to the
Nation on the 70th Independence Day, for the first time in history of India
spoke about suppression and persecution of people in Balochistan by Pakistan. And while
there is great truth that Pakistani government and its various agencies have
treated ethnic Baloch unfairly and repressively, since the forceful annexation
of Kalat by Pakistan in 1947. And continues to exploit the mineral rich region
for the benefit of rest of Pakistan & primarily Panjab - for example, in
Saindak copper mine, the Pakistani and Chinese central governments will take
50% and 48% of the proceeds, leaving 2% for the province. Similarly,
Balochistan is also gas rich but only 17% of the gas produced is consumed in
Balochistan while the rest is consumed in other parts of Pakistan, feeding into
the alienation belief of ethnic Baloch (Reference: International Crisis Group, 2006) – but it is equally
true that both Pakistan and India understand the limitation of Baloch card.
Unlike Bangladesh, which had the advantage of border with India and population,
Baloch on the other hand are merely 3.5% of overall Pakistani ethnicities (approx.
6million) and as well, limited by their lack of border with India.
Even assuming
entire Baloch rise up in Balochistan against Pakistan, they are still only 55%
of population share, and has been consistently reducing with the influx of
Afghans and migration from other provinces of Pakistan.
Therefore,
despite genuine grievances and repression, Baloch are unlikely to succeed in
their quest for independence, even with assistance from India.
What then has PM
Modi achieved by making a public statement on Balochistan, apart from ruffling
few feathers in Rawalpindi & Islamabad, and infact giving Pakistan fauj
legitimate ground to continue it’s ruthless suppression of Baloch right
activists?
In my opinion, India,
has calculated the benefit of using Baloch card, and would possibly continue to
use it at various national & international forums, with the limited
objective to embarrass Pakistan and remove the potency of Kashmir card used by
Pakistan.
And though using
the Baloch card directly challenges Pakistan, perhaps also delegitimizes Baloch
struggle; the subtext of PM Modi’s Baloch card is unmistakable: Get serious
about terrorism; or expect strike at Pakistan’s Achilles heel – the Pashtuns.
Pashtuns are
second largest ethnic group after Panjabis, constituting approximately 16% of
population (30million) in Pakistan, and have fraternal relationship with
Pashtuns of Afghanistan, who account for another approx. 12million. The rulers of Pakistan have been always wary
about Pashtuns, since prior to independence Pashtuns led by Abdul Ghaffar Khan
aligned with Congress as they considered Muslim League pro-Colonialists.
Further, right after formation of Pakistan, Afghan–Pakistan relations rapidly nose-dived,
after a military aircraft from the Pakistan Air Force bombed a village on the
Afghan side of the Durand Line. In response, the Afghan government declared
that it recognised "neither the imaginary Durand nor any similar
line" and that all previous Durand Line agreements were void.
Kabul on its
part until late 60s, extended support to Pashtun nationalists inside Pakistan
and flirted with the idea of “Pashtunistan.” After loss of East Pakistan, the
Panjabi dominated polity remaining in Pakistan, grappling with insecurities,
resorted to use of political Islam against Sardar Daud’s government to pre-empt
repeat of another Bangladesh. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s government created the
“Afghan Cell” and assigned it a policy to empower Islamists in exile in
Pakistan, and establishing a Pakistan “friendly” government in Kabul.
Against this
backdrop, even prior to arrival of Soviets and initiation of US funded Afghan
jihad, Pakistan had principally and individually supported Islamists, in their
quest for elusive strategic depth. Over the years, Pakistan, led by its Panjab
dominated fauj has treated and exploited Pashtuns as cannon fodder, including
its own citizens on this side of Durand line. Pakistan fauj believes that
Pashtuns are living on a geo-strategic fault line and therefore takes a binary approach,
which makes them insensible to the concerns of Pashtuns, something reflected in Human Development Index and Literacy rates, where Pashtuns rank
poorly compared to Panjabis.
What you pursue, will pursue you:
Pakistan, fueled
by fear of being sandwiched between archrival India and an independent
Afghanistan, has pursued the policy of injecting toxic political Islam in
Pashtun society, at the cost of national anarchy. And despite the price that
Pakistan continues to bear, there are no signs of let down in it’s policy. Viewing
everything through the prism of security, Pakistan fauj led by former General
Raheel Sharif, missed the opportunity to mend ties with Afghanistan and
scuttled President Ashraf Ghani’s peace overtures – possibly making it their
costliest mistake of the present decade.
Pakistan fauj
continues to believe and invest in Taliban project, and uses population-bordering
Afghanistan to bring in a regime change in Kabul, in turn wrecking havoc within
Pashtun society.
Since 2009, Pakistan
fauj has diligently orchestrated the expansion of Haqqani network – the main
actor of its Taliban project – in tribal Kurram
Agency. Kurram is a region of special strategic importance to Taliban. In the
past, it served as a launch pad for Afghan jihad. This expansion of Haqqani
Network and like-minded terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda & LeT is having troubling
consequences for security and stability, not just in eastern Afghanistan but
also in Pashtun dominated Kurram.
Kurram has a mix of Shia-Sunni Pashtun population, with the upper
Kurram, bordering Afghanistan, dominated by Shias. Backed by Pakistan fauj, the
Haqqanis’ using violence has masterfully created irreparable division between
the two communities. It is estimated that, the violence had left over 2000 dead
and 3500 wounded. But more importantly giving Haqqani the leverage to mediate
in peace talks between the communities, resulting in Shia agreeing to provide
safe house/ passage for Haqqani to operate inside Kurram.
In pursuit of the elusive strategic depth, Pakistan has alienated
Pashtuns on either side of Durand line, which is now open to manipulations by
foreign powers, including India.
Prime Minister Modi gave an example of its possibility and potency very
recently, when Pakistan witnessed its worst terrorist attacks of this year,
starting from Parachinar (Kurram) to Lahore to Sehwan (Sindh). While the
attacks are claimed by various factions and off shoot of Taliban project, from a
geo-politics observational stand point, it is obvious the attacks were in
response to former Gen Raheel Sharif’s authorized rail network attacks in
India. What followed the attacks was along expected lines, especially for India
– as Pakistani state sensing loss of control for Haqqanis in Shia dominated
(Parachinar) Kurram responded with witch-hunt and stereotyping of Pashtuns, who
essentially are both victims and pawns in this rivalry.
Pakistani states unimaginative and repressive approach to dealing with
terrorism, as well as continued pursuit of Taliban project has ruptured and
widened the Pashtun vs Panjabi divide. Pakistan faces existential crisis,
internally, specifically because of its own policies and relatively because
India is both able and now with PM Modi at helm, willing to payback Pakistan in
the same coin.
And with no visible change in Pakistan’s policy towards terrorism, the
question, therefore is not who and how, it is rather when – will India
irrevocably decide to strike at Pakistan’s Achilles heel.
Published in DailyO: http://www.dailyo.in/politics/pakistan-afghanistan-balochistan-taliban-pashtuns-india-modi/story/1/16686.html
Published in DailyO: http://www.dailyo.in/politics/pakistan-afghanistan-balochistan-taliban-pashtuns-india-modi/story/1/16686.html
Comments
Post a Comment